WE ARE BACK.

It's another Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL in fun ways.

We went 5-0 on this way-too-early send last week, and the people that tailed turned $100 into $1,000.

You're welcome. Now we're going for back-to-back sweeps, so thank me by sharing this newsletter with at least 1 friend.

There’s also a crazy amount of giveaways on Twitter right now.

NBA is getting nutty

NFL betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so it’s important to get some action down early in the week. I can help with that!

Today’s NFL Prop Drop:

Note: Full analysis on picks later this week and on Twitter shortly, but today is about getting the best early action down… quickly.

• Tap the bet to tail on PrizePicks before the line moves

Way-too-early:

6. L. Jackson: O 227.5 pass yards

Love this one against a Texans team who allowed the 8th most passing yards and were bottom-2 against play action.

5. Z. Flowers: O 51.5 rec yards

Houston is 28th in the NFL in yards per catch allowed to WRs and Flowers draws more downfield targets when Andrews is in.

4. M. Evans: O 69.5 rec yards

3. T. Palmer: O 19.5 rec yards

For the same reason we took overs on puka and robinson last week, Detroit is a bottom-5 defense in yards per target and yards per game allowed to outside wide receivers... where both of these guys play at least 80% of thier offensive snaps.

2. I. Pacheco: O 19.5 rec yards

He was not involved in the receiving game last week, but he averaged 5 targets per game over the previous 4, and Andy Reid is smart enough to correct that against a Bills defense that's 6th-worst at defending the position through the air.

🤫 Tap here for my #1 Early-Week Prop Bet

Any-Time TD:

5. L. Jackson: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

He’s averaging 91.8 rushing yards PER GAME in the playoffs and he'll take on a Texans defense that's allowed a LEAGUE-LEADING 7 rushing TDs to the position.

4. D. Samuel: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

The Packers allowed the 7th most rushing TDs and Deebo had 10 touchdowns on just 59 total touches since Week 10... he's also the BEST 49ers WR option to target against ZONE which Green Bay plays a ton of defensively.

3. D. Montgomery: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

TOUGH matchup, but we know running back is all about OPPORTUNITY so I still like him to score for Lions team that's a 6.5 point home favorite.

2. M. Evans: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

We already took the OVER on yards for Mike Evans above because the Lions can't defend OUTSIDE WRs, but after dropping a long TD last week... Evans getting deep for one is a LOCK.

🤫 Tap here for my #1 Early-Week Prop Bet

Run good this week!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is that I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

Thank you for joining us on this exciting sports betting journey. Feel free to join our community sweats on Twitter (X) — That’s where I drop exclusive giveaways for people who like posts and reply in the comments.