WE ARE BACK.

It's another Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL in fun ways.

Just finished recording with the weekly YouTube guests…

And there are a few things I overlooked on the way-too-early send that are HUGE opportunities this weekend.

But first…

Get my NBA picks early (just like NFL) here ⬇️⬇️

There’s a crazy amount of giveaways on Twitter right now.

NFL betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so it’s important to get some action down early in the week. I can help with that!

Today’s NFL Prop Drop:

Note: Full analysis on picks later this week and on Twitter shortly, but today is about getting the best early action down… quickly.

• Tap the bet to tail on PrizePicks before the line moves

Way-too-early (NFC parlay) :

5. D. Montgomery: U 44.5 rush yards

The 49ers also allow the 2nd-FEWEST rushing yards per game. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to run on 36.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

4. B. Purdy: O 1.5 pass Tds

The Lions have allowed over 300 yards through the air and MULTIPLE PASSING TDs in five straight games. With an impressive ratio of 1.88 per game (92nd percentile), Brock Purdy rates among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year.

3. J. Goff: O 0.5 INT

No defense has more interceptions this season than the 49ers and the Lions are a huge 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

2. A. St Brown: U 84.5 rec yards

The only way he gets there is one of those 12-15 target games, which could happen, but this isn’t a matchup I’m comfortable with him going over on this line.

🤫 Tap here for my #1 early-week NFC Bet

Sunday Best Bets (LOCKS of the Week):

6. S. LaPorta: U 48.5 rec yards

This feels like a LOCK with how strong the 49ers have been at defending the MIDDLE OF THE FIELD

5. J. Gibbs: O 47.5 rush yards

San Fran is susceptible to runs off tackle or to the EDGE, exactly where Detroit schemes him the ball. Gibbs stands out among running backs, averaging 63.0 adjusted yards per game (91st percentile) and 5.38 yards per carry (98th percentile). His 3.08 yards after contact per attempt also ranks him in the 76th percentile, underscoring his strength as a top RB in the league.

4. G. Kittle: O 60.5 rec yards

He gets a SIGNIFICANT BOOST if Deebo is out or limited and he has a 23% target share and a higher yards per route run than even Aiyuk with Deebo OFF the field. Excelling in generating extra yardage, he averages 6.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC), placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

3. O. Beckham Jr: O 20.5 rec yards

OBJ has MASSIVE VOLUME SPLITS in favor of man coverage vs. zone and Per Rich Hribar, he only has 18 fewer yards than Zay Flowers this year against man. Odell Beckham Jr. grades out in the 78th percentile among wideouts this year with an impressive 24.5% of his team's air yards accumulated.

2. C. McCaffrey: U 19.5 rush att

No RB has had 20 or more rush attempts against the Lions this year and CMC himself HAS ONLY HIT 20 rush attempts in 1 of his last 13 games.

🤫 Tap here for the #1 bet of the week (legit can’t miss)

Run good this week!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is that I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

Thank you for joining us on this exciting sports betting journey. Feel free to join our community sweats on Twitter (X) — That’s where I drop exclusive giveaways for people who like posts and reply in the comments.